Pandemic?

Yesterday I attended a conference on "The Coming Pandemic" at the local medical school. It was interesting, a bit nerve racking in some parts, but all in all, I am not convinced that we are headed for a horrific, 1918-like pandemic any time soon.

There were some sobering facts to consider. First of all, the virus strain that epidemiologists are worried about is the "bird flu" virus: H5N1 for the medically inclined. The epidemiologist at the conference said that this strain has been mutating regularly, and is one amino acid away from making it easily transmissible from human to human. Right now, it is basically endemic in the chicken and migratory bird population, and I think he also said it had spread to fish, but he didn't specify which fish.

Another cause for concern is that since the virus is in migratory birds, and migratory birds go all over the world (the epidemiologist had a picture of the routes they took--for the really scared, it looked like the only place that they didn't visit was Antarctica), it is possible that the birds themselves can spread the virus to humans.

But don't go vegetarian yet--the doc assured us that the virus does not survive in well-cooked foods. But the areas that had cases of H5N1 also have some interesting cuisine, like duck's blood pudding. Ick!!!!!

One of the presenters asked how many people in the audience have a week's supply of water stored up in case of emergency. I was surprised at how many people raised their hands. I haven't been one to store up rations for an emergency, although I do have a full set of camping equipment that includes a sleeping bag that will keep me warm in weather down to -20f, and two water purifiers. I also have hunting equipment so I guess if anything really hit the proverbial fan, I could just go up north and live off the land.

But since I am a highly trained RN living in a large metropolitan area, and since I also am on my state's Volunteer Registry (meaning that I can be called to help out in a large-scale disaster) I always figured that if something really bad happened, I'd be out in the field anyway.

But I think what makes me a bit skeptical about the likelihood of a pandemic is the amount of knowledge that we have, and the availability of technology to disseminate the knowledge. I mean, H5N1 was discovered on the other side of the world, and scientists in the U.S. have been studying it for years. Although the ease of world travel can increase the spread of a virus, I think our knowledge of prevention and containment can mitigate its effects.

But of course, I had all of these thoughts before reading Agatestone's account of her co-workers coming into work and spreading their colds around.

If anyone is interested in learning more, the CDC has a website: http://www.pandemicflu.gov/. For some reason, I can't get the "insert link" function on my blog. Oh, well.

By the way, there have been two more pandemics in our recent history: one in 1957, one in 1968. The number of people who died from these pandemics decreased dramatically each time.

Disclaimer: If there are any inaccuracies in the information provided above, I apologize. This conference did not include any information like Power-Point slides, that we could take home for reference, so I am relying on my memory here. I suspect that we didn't have any take-home references because the information in this field is still developing.